India's economy has bounced back amazingly from the Covid-19 pandemic and nationwide lockdown over the last one year, but it is not out of the woods yet, according to the World Bank, which in its latest report has predicted that the country's real GDP growth for fiscal year 21/22 could range from 7.5 to 12.5 per cent.
The next quarter-century could mark India's rise as a nation to be more whole-heartedly admired if it addresses its institutional and policy failures, and focuses on reducing its inequalities and addressing its iniquities, asserts T N Ninan.
'The assessment of most people is that there is a stable economic and political environment in India and that is attractive to investors.'
Most analysts expect the note ban to sharply hit GVA growth in Q3 and Q4, and the central bank's stance is being called into question.
It said banks' asset quality will deteriorate across the corporate, small and medium enterprises and retail segments, leading to pressure on profitability and capital.
Ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy announcement, a leading economic thinktank said on Monday that lending rates might dip marginally in the coming months due to recent decline in inflation.
Manufacturing companies have been outperformers on the bourses in the current year, leading to a rise in their weighting in the benchmark index. Companies in sectors such as FMCG, automobile, pharmaceuticals, metals, cement, and agrochemicals now account for 25.43 per cent of the Nifty 50 index, up 88 basis points from 24.55 per cent at the end of December last year and a record low of 23.1 per cent at the end of CY20. The manufacturing sector is now dominated by FMCG majors such as Hindustan Unilever, ITC, Asian Paints, Nestle, and Britannia, accounting for 45 per cent of the combined market cap of all manufacturing companies in the index.
The report stated the 2013 land Act was a step forward.
Indices across Indian equity markets have edged towards new record highs before undergoing a small correction in the past few sessions. The National Stock Exchange Nifty has gained 20 per cent in the past year; mid-caps (up 33 per cent), small-caps (up 31 per cent), and micro-caps (up 44 per cent) have done better. Several factors have precipitated this rally.
However, despite Covid, Indian markets registered their best financial year performance in a decade, with the Sensex and Nifty50 rallying 68 per cent and 71 per cent, respectively, in FY21.
Tata Steel was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, climbing 2.11 per cent, followed by Infosys, HDFC Bank, HDFC, Kotak Bank, M&M and PowerGrid. NSE Nifty jumped 142.05 points to end at 17,605.85.
'To the believers of crypto regulations, I have only one question to ask, how will you regulate it?'
energy is India's binding supply-side constraint for inclusive growth.
The push given to rooftop solar installation in the Interim Budget ties in with its high rate of adoption in Tier-II and -III cities of India. If original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in the automobile industry, government, and the solar sector are to be believed, in cities of Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Kerala, 45-50 per cent of electric-vehicle (EV) users are employing rooftop power to charge their vehicles. This is compared to the national average of 25 per cent, say industry sources.
Strong macroeconomic headwinds causing turbulence in the $245-billion Indian IT industry are yet to calm down. Top Indian IT services companies are likely to post a decline or just marginal growth in sequential revenue in Q1FY24 because of a soft discretionary spending environment. Though the first quarter is seasonally strong for IT firms, "June 2023 will be an exception", according to analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities.
The world's biggest lockdown that shut a majority of the factories and businesses, suspended flights, stopped trains and restricted movement of vehicles and people, may have cost the Indian economy Rs 7-8 lakh crore during the 21-day period, analysts and industry bodies said.
In New Delhi, Singh will continue US administration's ongoing consultations with India, and advance a range of issues in the US-India economic relationship and strategic partnership.
An aggressive rate hike by the US Fed and the possibility of a recession can trigger a slide in these stocks, which will be a good opportunity to buy from a long-term perspective.
Gold, the safest haven amid the ongoing uncertainty, also emerged as one of the most lucrative investment options in financial year 2022-23 with an impressive return of 16.1 per cent in rupee terms, and 2.3 per cent returns in dollars. And, had it not been for the very high inflow of smuggled gold and the huge discount prevailing in the market due to high prices, the returns in gold would have been much higher, analysts said. The precious metal has consistently been delivering positive returns in India since 2016.
Modi's government plans to support domestic demand
'It's not really going to bring about purity in the election process.'
Chief Economic Advisor Krishnamurthy Subramanian said China imports a lot of components, parts, assembles and integrates and then exports them.
'No Cold War should be reignited and no Ukraine-style crisis should be repeated in Asia'
'In the short term, we may see some disruptions due to Covid, but in the medium-to-long term, we should keep an eye on US inflation and 10-year bond yields.'
Inflation targeting has worked well and the government must stay with it, and the framework is going to work well in the period ahead also, former RBI Governor D Subbarao said on Thursday. He also said low inflation contributes to sustainable growth. Addressing the 'Times Network India Economic Conclave' virtually, Subbarao said the government's proposal to privatise some public sector units is not akin to selling family silver but it is a route for putting India on a sustainable growth path.
'All of Indira Gandhi's bad economic ideas are being strengthened, from nationalised banks to anti-poverty, handout yojanas,' says Shekhar Gupta.
Although the services sector is a huge success, the biggest challenge for the Indian government is to build public support for the sector.
The Chinese had enough foreign reserves.
Equity benchmark Sensex rebounded 454 points on Thursday, boosted by gains in index heavyweight Reliance Industries amid a positive trend in global markets.
'Markets could face uncertainty in the short to medium term.' 'It would be prudent to invest in alternative asset classes, especially debt, for about a year.' 'Bank fixed deposits are offering rates as high as 9 per cent per annum and these can be used as a great hedging tool until equity markets stabilise.'
A careful reading of the national income accounts suggests that after a strong recovery from the pandemic, there has been a significant ebbing of dynamism over the last three quarters to more modest levels recently, note Arvind Subramanian and Josh Felman.
The rupee depreciated by 9 paise and settled at its all-time low level of 83.13 against the US dollar on Wednesday, weighed down by a surge in crude oil prices and strong American currency. Forex traders said the Indian rupee depreciated as the US dollar rose to the highest levels in six months. Moreover, elevated crude oil prices also weighed on rupee.
The Nifty Bank index has come off 15 per cent from its peak in February, underperforming the benchmark Nifty which is down 6%.
'It has a natural inclination to foster as much competition among civilian politicians as possible.'
For Duflo and Banerjee, an important part of their work has been ensuring that the agency of the "beneficiaries" -- usually, in developing countries like India, poorer individuals -- is put at the centre of any policy design. This is a crucial way in which experimental results are often better than large scale data-based inference, says Mihir S Sharma.
Faced with a challenging and unfavourable economic backdrop, institutional investors should focus on agility, flexibility and efficiency.
Equity benchmarks extended their decline for the fourth straight session on Wednesday, with the Sensex falling 214.85 points after the Reserve Bank raised the key interest rate by 50 basis points. Continuous foreign fund outflows and surging crude oil prices also weighed on markets. The 30-share BSE benchmark dropped 214.85 points or 0.39 per cent to settle at 54,892.49.
Tata Motors was the biggest loser in the Sensex pack, skidding 1.77 per cent, followed by SBI, Power Grid, Tata Steel, Infosys, UltraTech Cement, Titan, Larsen & Toubro, Reliance Industries and Maruti. On the other hand, IndusInd Bank, Bharti Airtel, Asian Paints, NTPC, HCL Technologies, HDFC and Sun Pharma were the gainers.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will maintain the policy repo rate at 6.5 per cent during its upcoming June 8 announcement, considering the easing of retail inflation in April and the potential for further decline, indicating the effectiveness of previous policy rate actions, anticipate experts. Headed by Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das, a meeting of the six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled for June 6-8. The decision of the 43rd meeting of the MPC would be announced on Thursday, June 8.
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